Sunday, February 26, 2012

E-7: Gambler's Fallacy

The Gambler's Fallacy is the belief that if an event has occurred repeatedly, then the opposite is due.


*People often think that if heads has come up 5 times in a row on a coin toss, then tails will be  next.

*In roulette, gamblers believe that a colour is due because it hasn't come up for a while.

*Couples who have had a few boys try again because they feel a girl is more likely to be next.

*Monte Carlo 1913, the ball landed in black 26 times in a row. This caused inflated betting on red and players lost millions of francs thinking there would be an opposite consecutive run of reds.

This is not true at all.  All these examples have the same odds of occurring as they did the last time. 50/50.

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